Category: Warren Throckmorton

New COVID Cases in States Where Masks Are Required Versus States Where Masks Aren’t Required

My Grove City College colleague Gary Welton wanted to know more about the association of mask requirements with number of new cases of COVID-19. One way to examine this is to look at states where masks are required compared to states where they aren’t. In this scenario, the actual mask wearing can’t be controlled. However, this analysis examines the policy and the association with number of cases per 100,000 in population. Here are Gary’s findings when he examined new cases in the 35 states where mask mandates are in place compared to states where maskes are not required for the week from 9/2 to 9/8/20.

About the findings, Gary said, “In fact, for the recent week, states that have mandated masks show about half the number of infections per 100,000 people. Given the current data, it is prudent to wear a mask.”

I realize that even in states where masks are required, not everybody wears them. However, if I am a policy maker, I would have to look at this at least twice and wonder what is going on. Ideally, Gary will continue this analysis as the pandemic continues to see if the relationship continues. For now, this adds one more point of support for wearing masks as a means of reducing, though not eliminating, the spread.

 

L.A. County Fines Grace Community Church for Signage Infraction

Claiming the church’s signs were misplaced, L.A. County fined Grace Community Church $1000.

Grace Community posted signs warning people not to enter if they have symptoms of disease and claiming the church has no responsibility if sickness occurs. Here is what church attorney Jenna Ellis showed on Twitter.

The sign says:

By entering the Grace Community Church campus, you assume the risk of contracting COVID-19, and you agree that the church cannot be held responsible if that happens. Please do not enter if you have an elevated temperature, a cough, or any flu-like symptoms.

Strange, I thought John MacArthur preached that worry over COVID-19 was a part of a plot to deceive the church.

In any case, the signs are up around the church but they must not be where the Health Order prescribes them to be. It appears that L.A. County is working up to a more strict enforcement of the Health Order, perhaps hoping that MacArthur will see the light. Given his recent stance that there is no pandemic, I doubt he is going to change his position.

John MacArthur Doubles Down on No Pandemic Claim

In his sermon today at Grace Community Church, pastor John MacArthur told his congregation that his claim last week that there is no COVID-19 pandemic was not made off the cuff. He said again that by the CDC definition of a pandemic there is no pandemic. Watch:

MacArthur is making yet another common mistake by referring to the number of COVID-19 cases as compared to the population of California. This is not how epidemiologists think about the lethality of a disease. You compare the number of deaths to the number of cases to get the mortality rate.

MacArthur said that the definition of a pandemic is that “1 to 3% of the people die.” By his definition of a pandemic (1 to 3% of the population), the Spanish Flu epidemic would not have counted as such because less than one percent of the American population died. According to the CDC website, 675,000 Americans died during the 1918-1919 season. With a population of 104.5-million in 1919, well under 1% died (.65%).

MacArthur also said the number of people who have COVID in California is “one hundredth of one percent out of 40 million. That’s not a death statistic, that’s a COVID statistic.” Currently, the number of cases in CA stands at 735,742. Given the population of just less than 40-million people in CA, the percentage of the population with a positive COVID diagnosis is a little over 1.8%. Even if the calculation used active cases (373,175), the percentage is .94% or almost 1%.

I need to research this a bit more but so far the only definition on the CDC website of a pandemic I found is this one:

Pandemic refers to an epidemic that has spread over several countries or continents, usually affecting a large number of people. Epidemics occur when an agent and susceptible hosts are present in adequate numbers, and the agent can be effectively conveyed from a source to the susceptible hosts.

MacArthur also said that Grace is the only church in CA allowed to meet indoors. I question that interpretation. The court has declined to issue a court order to require Grace to comply with L.A. County’s Health Order but has told L.A. County that the County may enforce the Health Order forbidding indoor meeting. L.A. County has chosen not to enforce the order.

In any case, the court is set to rule this week on the injunction with L.A. County as the plaintiff  in the case.

L.A. County and Grace Community Church Continue Dispute in Court Today

Today, L.A. County and Grace Community Church met in court today in the courtroom of Judge Mitchell Beckloff in their dispute over indoor worship services. The L.A. Country Health Order forbids indoor worship but is finding it difficult to enforce since Grace will not abide by it.

According to an article in today’s LA Daily News, a decision may not come for several days. According to the report, the arguments pertained to a compelling state interest to regulate religion versus the freedom of religious bodies to control their practices.

 

About Punching a Protestor, Eric Metaxas Says “It Just Happened”

Well, he didn’t want his story to come out but thanks to a fellow named Paul Glader writing on a website called Religion Unplugged, we now have it confirmed that Eric Metaxas punched Portland activist Anthony P. Harrington after Trump’s acceptance speech last Thurday night. (See this post for background)

Metaxas emailed Glader with the information. Metaxas asked him not to disclose it but Glader treated the communication as on the record. Metaxas said he thought Harrington was menacing and the punch “just happened.” For his part, Harrington denies being threatening, pointing to the fact that Metaxas punched him from behind.

In the Glader article, I am identified as “left leaning” and on the other end of Rod Dreher. I am probably on the other end of Rod Dreher, but that just makes me right of center.

Weird Christian Twitter got a cameo in the piece with the Metaxas Backward Shuffle meme featured prominently. I feel sure #WCT will get a lot of mileage out of that.

See this post from John Fea for more on Metaxas’ response to the punch and run.

WORLD magazine has a bit of a disclosure from Metaxas as well along with an update from Harrington.