Category: politics

Religion and the 2008 election

I am compiling some data regarding special interest voting, religion and the 2008 election. This post serves as an open forum for readers who see polls or data regarding various interest groups (e.g., pro-life, those not favoring gay rights, Protestant, Catholic, Evangelical, etc.). Just add them to the comments section. I will be adding to the post throughout the day and evening.
First up is Christianity Today’s Evangelical vote map. There you can find a compilation by Ted Olson of how the Evangelical vote went from state to state. Looks like the percentage of Evangelical vote is more like the Kerry election than the Clinton years.
Looking at this, I do not see much benefit for McCain to have run on an even more socially conservative platform than he did. He seemed to keep that aspect of the coalition together. And clearly Sarah Palin helped energize that base.
Here is an analysis from Richard Baehr at American Thinker. He looks at the data and says white voters stayed home and minorities voted in record numbers. I have to add that his observation that California, New York and Illinois accounted for the lion’s share of the vote difference between Obama and McCain might say something about how blue those states have become.
And the youth vote…
This article from LifeNews indicates that the Catholic vote went for Obama.
Weekly churchgoers went for Obama a bit more than for Kerry:

Despite heavy religious outreach by Obama, exit poll results suggested white evangelicals voted for John McCain 74 to 25 percent, roughly similar to 2004 results. The gap among weekly churchgoers, however, closed a bit: McCain beat Obama by a 54-44 percent margin, compared to George W. Bush’s 61-39 percent win with the group in 2004.

The New York Times reports gains for Obama over Kerry among younger evangelicals and in important swing states (e.g., CO). My impression is that Obama will have a relatively short window of opportunity to solidify these gains. If he doesn’t deliver on the concerns of the younger set, we may see quite a backlash next time around.

Nov. 5 New York Times Front Page Leaked

Well, I can’t actually verify this but it might look something like this.
NYT
Here is a little better view of it.
I might be done for the night; I am not sure I can watch this. FOX just called VA at 10:41pm for Obama. Virginia.
Jedi mind tricks.
Some GOP people I talk to hope for buyer’s remorse and a resurgence in the mid-term elections in 2010. As a historical parallel, Bill Clinton, in 1992, met immediate problems with his health care initiatives; one wonders if Obama’s pledge to make the Freedom of Choice Act his first legislative priority could be a parallel. There are any number of liberal proposals that Obama would do well to wait to move on if he wants to avoid what happened during the first Clinton term. The Contract with America came along in 1994 and helped revitalize the GOP.

"I won't have to worry about paying my mortgage"

Reading the now removed post of Julietta Appleton on Obamatravel.org, I was really struck by her devotion to Barack Obama. I used to run a private practice in counseling as she apparently does, and I had a hard time getting away for a week’s vacation. The business suffers and your clients are put on hold (6 weeks!?). Here is what she posted:
appleton1
Note that she says she has no money but she needs to get her man elected. I like McCain-Palin but I am not going to wreck my career over the election.
And then there is this young woman who is clearly emotional, but believes that Obama will end her financial worries.

When expectations that high are dashed, it can be very painful. I am sad when I hear people who are banking their personal well being on a political solution. I don’t know either of these women so I am willing to assume that their situations are more complex and that after the campaign, they may come back to a more realistic perspective. Hope so…