(UPDATE 10/27) A fifth case of COVID-19 is now associated with Grace Community Church, you can check the case numbers here.
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(UPDATE) According to an email that went out to the Grace Community, the people who have COVID are part-time employees.
You may have seen a report on the news claiming that there is a COVID-19 outbreak at our church. There is no outbreak at Grace Church. We have three, part-time employees who tested positive and are now recovering at home, having never been hospitalized. As we enter the flu season, we encourage you to stay home if you are not feeling well or have COVID-19-like symptoms. We are going to meet for worship this Sunday to celebrate the Lord’s Table together.
Do those employees also attend the church? This statement raises as many questions as it answers.
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(UPDATE) Jenna Ellis, attorney for Grace Community Church just released this statement in response to the LA Times article about the COVID outbreak at the church:
Three very mild positive tests among more than 7000 people is hardly news. 0.0004% is not an ‘outbreak.’ The LA Times and others’ grossly misleading and fear-mongering headlines aim to mischaracterize Grace Community Church as irresponsible and a superspreader. It has never been the Church’s position that it is only safe to hold services if no one ever tests positive, or for example, if no one ever gets the flu during flu season. Our position has been that LA County shutting down churches indefinitely amid a virus with a 99.98% survival rate, especially when state-preferred businesses are open and protests are held without restriction, is unconstitutional and harmful to the free exercise of religion.
I wrote the public relations firm back to inform them that the actual percentage is .043% (3 divided by 7000 multiplied by 100). If they issue a correction, I will note it. Perhaps this is why MacArthur continues to cite incorrect prevalence figures for CA.
(UPDATE) – The public relations firm wrote back and acknowledged the math error.
Ellis also has the survival rate wrong. It isn’t correct to speak about surviving an illness you have never had. She incorrectly refers to the number of deaths as a proportion of the population. However, she is incorrect there as well. Her number (.02%) would lead to a death toll of 65,000 deaths. The COVID death toll is just over 224,000. The number of cases is about 8.6 million. The fatality rate among people who have had the illness stands at about 2.5%. The actual fatality rate may be lower, but it isn’t as low as Ellis and company want you to believe.
The term outbreak has a precise definition taken from the California Department of Health. Here is the definition:
- In non-residential congregate settings, e.g., workplaces, adult and child daycare facilities, K-12 schools and colleges/universities:
- At least three probable or confirmed COVID-19 cases* within a 14-day period in people who are epidemiologically-linked† in the setting, are from different households, and are not identified as close contacts‡ of each other in any other case investigation.
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The L.A. Times reported late yesterday that three cases of COVID-19 are now associated with Grace Community Church in Sun Valley. This is John MacArthur’s church where the members don’t wear masks or keep a safe distance.
In addition, MacArthur’s college, The Master’s University reported two cases of COVID-19 on campus. According to a source close to the college, a third case was discovered within the past two days. Apparently, there is something to this coronavirus.
Pastor John MacArthur is in a court battle with Los Angeles County over a health order forbidding indoor worship in the county. He once told his congregation that it was good news that they were not wearing masks and were not social distancing. He also has declared that there is not a pandemic based on faulty statistics about the prevalence of COVID-19 in CA.
Julie Roys reminded me of this fact from the past. Two people died as a result of attending John MacArthur’s Shepherd Conference in March. In addition to these fatalities, there was also a couple who became quite ill and was hospitalized in the Spring.
I wonder if seeing how poorly Trump does in the courts will change MacArthur’s stance on fighting the covid restrictions.
Quick poll: how many of y’all also read and comment on Friendly Atheist’s blog?
A bunch of us are all over the interwebz, including hanging at Hemant’s place.
If it’s to call attention to Hemant’s post today,* Warren and John Fea have also discussed the cost to Evangelical Christianity for supporting tRump over the years. Fea’s post yesterday, https://thewayofimprovement.com/2020/11/02/court-evangelicals-make-their-final-pitch-on-election-day-eve/ , is an especially embarrassing take on the tRump evangelists.
*https://friendlyatheist.patheos.com/2020/11/03/trumps-lasting-legacy-he-made-it-much-harder-to-be-a-conservative-christian/
O/T:
Ewww. For those of you interested in a deep delve into the sleazy world of Jerry Falwell and Liberty University, see https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/11/01/jerry-falwell-liberty-university-becki-self-dealing-sex-430207
In case you hadn’t heard this cheery news. Herd mentality, indeed…. It’s not just about deaths.
“People recovering from COVID-19 may suffer significant brain function impacts, with the worst cases of the infection linked to mental decline equivalent to the brain ageing by 10 years, researchers warned on Tuesday.”
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-brains/covids-cognitive-costs-some-patients-brains-may-age-10-years-idUSKBN27C1MV
In tRump’s case it was about 20 years…
Has John MaCarthur been urging his congregation to get out and vote?
Probably, and if so we know for Who.
“Our position has been that LA County shutting down churches indefinitely” – oh…lemme stop you right there. That’s not what is happening. They are free to continue to meet while adhering to the safety protocols or outside.
Does that mean they don’t really count?
It means they didn’t sign a waiver. or it wouldn’t be enforceable if they did.
That means they probably aren’t on the church’s health insurance policy and so Johnny Mac isn’t responsible. Or something. But part-timers can spread COVID-19 just as effectively as full-timers, I’m sure.
I would imagine it means their exposure was limited. They weren’t there all the time and were not exposed to many people.
It most likely means that they were not exposed to many people for long periods of time.
president* Trump didn’t properly manage the Covid pandemic in the general population because the economy is more important to him than human life. MacArthur doesn’t want to take sensible precautions because the revenue from his collection plates are more important than human life.
That explains why Born-Again Bible-Believing Christians are the most Fanatical of Trump Fanatics.
Trump acts more like a ManaGAWD than the MenaGAWD who groomed them, so He must be More Anointed.
Not a man but a GOD.
What might explain the ruthless inhumanity of MacArthur and their ilk is a comment made long ago by Reagan’s Secretary of Interior, James Watt. Watt explained that there isn’t much incentive to take care of our planet because the Lord will soon return, and the Millennium will begin. Why care for your fellow humans if the return of Republican Jesus is “right” around the corner?
The simple answer is because “right around the corner” in biblical terms could be hundreds to thousands of years, so until that time christians are expected to be “good stewards”.
although, personally, a better answer would be to start dumping all your trash on their front lawns and tell them “what do you care, Jesus is returning soon anyway?”
The simple answer is because “right around the corner” in biblical terms could be hundreds to thousands of years, so until that time christians are expected to be “good stewards”.
although, personally, a better answer would be to start dumping all your trash on their front lawns and tell them “what do you care, Jesus is returning soon anyway?”
“It’s All Gonna Burn.:
Welcome to Rapture Ready (any minute now).
Take Darby’s “Secret Rapture”, let ferment for 150-200 years into Inerrant SCRIPTURE, add the Gospel of Personal Salvation and ONLY Personal Salvation, and what else would you get?
The attitude of Watt is a perfect one for allow Christians to be willing idiots and pawns for the “Free Market” conservatives .
Lest ye be in any doubt, here’s something JMac said in a recent sermon:
“God intended us to use this planet, to fill this planet for the benefit of man. Never was it intended to be a permanent planet. It is a disposable planet. Christians ought to know that.”
(Source: https://theconversation.com/god-intended-it-as-a-disposable-planet-meet-the-us-pastor-preaching-climate-change-denial-147712)
Again, “IT’S ALL GONNA BURN.”
I’m not surprised to hear that JMac is Dispy. RAPTURE Ready Dispy.
AND More Calvinist than Calvin. Add that to Rapture Dispy and you get what’s probably the WORST possible combination.
That is an astonishing thing to say from a pulpit! Of we like to organize things for our own benefit, but one job of preachers is to remind us continually that there is more to life than that …
JMac is a clear danger to public health and needs to be restrained.
“TOUCH NOT MINE ANOINTED!”
The more I have studied narcissism as a standard trait that no one gets to be a celebrity without (especially in the “Christian” subculture) the more I have come to realize that publicity stunts like this one have nothing to do with anything other than the celebrity needing his daily fix of being worshiped by all the little followers. This John is doing this just for his own ego and could not give a damn about what happens to anyone else. He has to be the center of attention and he has to have his cult full of people each week giving him validation and filling his filthy pockets with Mammon. He would rather die than go without that. The only thing is that at his age and with this kind of fantasy lying going on (he might actually believe it) he is much more likely than anyone else to actually catch the virus and die from it. He is tempting God and I am noticing that God’s patience is wearing very thin these days with many people. The Holy Spirit that John insulted will soon be flushing His own church out with a great flood of water behind the scenes and underground where the cameras are turned off. I suspect that this man has a short time to live at this point. Leveraging Jesus in order to make yourself great is something that has to end. The fear of God is lacking completely in our culture, but do not be surprised at what else is coming soon that will change that. God will not tolerate this kind of behavior forever. The time is now to get the fear of the Lord and for God’s own people to repent of many sins. Ananias and Sapphira happened once and can very well happen again. No one can help those who are lying or abusing the Holy Spirit when that returns. That is all I am going to say…
Wow, these people just can’t seem to do basic junior-high math. Off by a factor of 100.
Plus, I’m no medical professional, but is there any such concept as a “very mild positive test”? If you have it you have it. The people’s symptoms could well be “very mild” but I don’t think one can describe a positive test that way.
It’s kind of like being “a little bit pregnant.” At the time of the positive COVID-19 test, one might be asymptomatic or being tested in a hospital. The course of this disease can be very unpredictable, not just for middle aged people like me and old people like my mother, but healthy young people are at risk.
Likely Ellis meant to say “very mild case.” the real problem with the statement is how Ellis is trying to minimize the significance. Basically, she is saying “no one has died so it isn’t a big deal.” Which implies they aren’t going to care until people start dying.
“She’s just a little bit pregnant.”
Remember, these are the same kind of people who claim pi = 3 because BIBLE!
The pi=3 story is actually mostly a myth (as you can read for example in the nice little book A History of Pi, and briefly in the Wikipedia article on pi).
There have, however, been too many bibliolators trying to come up with clever ways (it was really a hexagon!) to force mathematical perfection onto the OT passage that mentions some basin being 10 cubits across and 30 cubits around.
But people who don’t appreciate geologic time scales might be more likely to be oblivious to errors of a few orders of magnitude …
Yes. I remember a long detailed analysis proving that the 10 cubits across was OUTSIDE diameter and the 30 cubits around was INSIDE circumference, calculating exactly how thick the walls of the “brazen sea” had to be to get that result. Geometric diagrams and all.
Given the time and energy that had to go into that “Apologetic Refutation”, I could only think of How Many Angels Can Dance on the Head of a Pin. Or Mel Brooks’ line from The Critic:
“Why can’t this guy do something? Drive a truck. Make a shoe. Something.”
I always figured that the “30 cubits around” was just rounding off to a rough number. I understand that compared to English, classical Hebrew and Aramaic (don’t know about Arabic) are poor when it comes to precise numbers; it’s a quirk of the language structure and vocabulary. I would not expect ten-decimal-place precision from something originally written in such a language.
It’s truly shameful how John MacArthur and his
cultfan club are besmirching the name of Jesus. They’re making Christianity into the caricature promoted by some atheists–anti-fact, anti-education and anti-science. All I can say is that this must be part of the master plan to (figuratively) burn Evangelicalism to the ground and discredit it as a movement with any sort of viability. *sigh*If you’re correcting numbers, you might as well address their 99.98% survival rate claim. If that were the survival rate, then even if everyone in America (328.2 million folks) caught COVID, 65,640 would have died. Since our death total is already well more than triple that, clearly out survival rate among the fraction who have had the disease is far lower.
Nat, that’s something to think about, considering that Donald Trump and his current favorite advisor, Doctor of Radiology Scott Atlas (as in NOT QUALIFIED), are embracing herd immunity. Atlas believes herd immunity can be achieved with a 25 to 30 percent infection rate, which would probably mean a million more people dead in the USA. Thing is, we know from vaccine uptake (specifically anti-vaccine parents refusing to vaccinate their children and being the source of recent outbreaks of dangerous “childhood” diseases like measles) that 90 to 95 percent (again, this is for measles) need to be either be vaccinated or have the disease.
So, if we were to hold out for true herd immunity and just let people get sick, get damaged and/or die, we might have several million dead and millions more injured. All because a president listened to a guy who is definitely outside of his lane.
(One of my friends lives near the Hoover Institution. She’s considered getting a plague doctor costume, complete with beaked mask and visiting just to let them know how much contempt she holds the joint in.)
From the epidemiologists I follow they are saying mid 60% to mid 70% for herd immunity based on infections in prisons and ships. Thats just to slow transmission not end it. Marc Lipsitch just released a paper on this dealing with natural t cell immunity.
Bit tricky to visit Hoover Institution since central campus is off-limits to the general public during the pandemic. Stanford (including the Med Center) is definitely ignoring Atlas’s advice. https://visit.stanford.edu/faq/
Measles is highly infectious and so needs a very large proportion of the population vaccinated to stop the spread. Covid-19 seems to be a bit less infectious so not quite such a high percentage is needed (all other things being equal).
Ah, OK. She’s a townie but obviously not a student. In any case, I told her the costume might be seen as threatening and she could get arrested.
But is LOYAL, LOYAL, LOYAL and that’s what’s Truly Important.
Herd immunity … hmmmm
Many cases of the ‘common cold’ are the result of infection with another (previously known) coronavirus, I gather …
In both the USA and the UK, the government talked of herd immunity at the start. In the UK, such talk has all but ceased – for good reason IMO.
MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV(-1) did not spread easily, though they are significantly more deadly than today’s SARS-CoV-2, and seem to have failed to thrive, at least for the moment. But I do not for a moment believe that this ‘failure’ on their part has anything to do with herd immunity.
My view (like yours, I am sure) is that we need to be careful until effective prophylaxis or treatment is available.
And that’s even before accounting for the older than average age of church congregations, and their higher than average risky behavior at the services. They may get lucky, and no one will suffer, but all it would take is one superspreader for dozens to become infected.
A lot of megas pressure their older members (more likely to die if COVID-infected) to include the church in their wills and estate planning, don’t they?
FEATURE, NOT BUG.
Using their numbers and arguement, as more people die your chances of dying would increase.
Quelle surprise.
Upvoted for the French.